Analysis and Reasoning of Economic Imbalances

  

Analysis and Reasoning of Economic Imbalances

According to the Father of Economics, “Adam Smith”, China is one of the world's most advanced, rich, fertile, industrious and prosperous countries in the world and it is one of the world's largest economy by nominal GDP. (Gross domestic product) Gross domestic product is a measure of value for all finished goods and services, which is measured quarterly or annually. This value is estimated to determine the economic performance of the country for a period of time. The nominal GDP does not show any differences in the living strategies of the people, but the fluctuations in the exchange rates may result in the countries ranking from time to time. A Comparison of the national wealth to that of other nations is made on purchasing power parity (PPP - estimates the exchange rate between two currencies) Through PPP the economy can solve its problems which arise from the exchange rates, even though it is not free from some drawbacks.

Based on the trade and economic reforms , China maintained poor and inefficient status in the global economy. But in the year, 1979 after implementing foreign trade and investment policies, china is the second largest among the fastest growing economies, maintaining a real average growth of gross domestic product of nearly 10% every year up to 2014. The economic crisis affected badly by the China's economy in 2008 and these trends which resulted in the decline in import, export and in foreign trade also. By this China's government responded and implemented some monetary policies to increase bank lending process. However, the statistics show that there is a decline in the China's economy in recent years. The GDP, which was 10.4% in the year 2010 fell to 7.8% in the year 2012 and a further decline i.e 7.3% in the year 2014.
Stock Exchange:
Despite of having two largest stock markets, China's financial system is restricted to market forces. The two china's stock markets are controlled by the domestic Chinese firms, which resulted a significant volatility in the global market. These stock markets were dominated by the speculators and to the greatest extent the shareholders have less influence to move according to the latest trends in the stock market within a short period. From January to June, 2015 these two stock markets bubbled and the investors were buying stocks on borrowing money. In the June 2015, the bubble blasted and there is a fall in the China's two stock markets by 32% to 40% respectively , resulting a major loss to the economy. With this the government entered into the scene and settled by relaxations in insurance policies and by offering public initials, restricting and selling all share and by buying all SEO (state owned organizations) stocks. According to a report, the government spent nearly $250 billions to standardize the stock markets and the government has certain measure to control the market.
Rise in Reserves in China
The latest release of an International Monetary Fund report says that the value of the dollar has declined in both developing and advanced economies. At last the multilateral reserve currencies are increasingly. The currencies other than dollars are gaining, the euro and yen. There is a drastic change in the 2015 Q2 and 2015 Q1. The value of the dollar depreciated in the Q2 increasing the value of nondollar holdings. Broadly speaking, a small depreciation in the exchange rate during Q2 increased the value share of the euro and yen.
Future strategies to restructure the Economy
The current economic trends of China say that again the Economy is strengthening. The 12th Five year plan of China contains about the economy restructure and the economy is targeting to emerge the industries which are going to play an important role in the future restructure of the economy. In the year 2014, China along with some other countries started a “New Development Bank” to assist the developing economies. Some financial analysts reported negatively on about China's economic slowdown, but it is the time for the global economy to face the new Chinese economic developments in the coming years.

 

Silk Road of China

  

Silk Road of China

As the title of the road might suggest, Silk Road of China is not a single road of some market where you can expect to find noteworthy shops lined up in continuity on the roadside selling unique goods to travellers and tourists. It is, in fact, a very old trade route dating back to around 1 B.C. The route connected China to other lands to the Mediterranean region facilitating trade between them, especially of silk when it came to China as China was the only source of silk in the earlier times.

Though with the coming of engines empowered airplanes and cruise ships, the importance of this route has faded today. But the natural beauty of the entire route, the mesmerising views of vast landscapes and the soothing journey that the route offers that is unaffected to date, has made the route a destination for tourism with UNESCO declaring its Tian Shan Corridor as a world heritage site.
It can be presumed that China as a travel destination to visit the Tian Shan Corridor and walk on the road that once connected Asia; it's worth a shot! And while you have decided to make a visit to this road, check some of our selected spots along the corridor that are surely worthy of dropping by.
Army of Terra Cotta Warriors: If you have ever taken an interest in world history or even studied it in high school then you'd have heard about the Terra Cotta Army. A literal army of warriors having archers, chariots, soldiers and every other human unit that constituted an actual Chinese army except that this army was inanimate and made of clay. The army was made to serve as warriors protecting the first Chinese emperor; Qin Shi Huang in the afterlife and so was buried along with him. Thousands of Terra Cotta warriors have been unearthed and are on display in Shaanxi province that is outside of Xi'an city. Terra Cotta army is indeed a vital piece of Chinese culture that attracts tourists from around the world.
Labrang Monastery: If Buddhism fascinates you; then you have to visit this place. It is one of the most important monasteries of Buddhism and was once home for 4000 monks through which the teachings of Buddha reverberated to the outside. The monastery is still occupied and used by monks who continue to practice Buddhism in the monastery's halls and corridors. It is located in Xiahe town within Gansu province.
Singing Sand Mountains and Crescent Lake: The landscape of desert, sand dunes stretching kilometres in length and a crescent moon shaped lake in the middle of the desert; doesn't that sound like fantasy locations taken out from a story book? A crescent moon shaped lake in the middle of a desert with towering sand dunes whose sand when blown by the wind makes an almost instrumental sound; yes this place is real! It is also situated in Gansu province not much away from Labrang monastery.
Tianchi Lake: Right on the border of China and Korea is situated a lake so beautiful that it literally translates to 'Heaven Lake' in English. Tianchi Lake is a crater lake surrounded by mountains and peaks on all sides. The surface of the lake amidst the white gleam of the high rising peaks gives the scenery of that of a mirrored blue disk. Also, other than its scenic excellence that's almost divine, Tianchi Lake is also quite famous for its monster sightings (good news for thrill seekers).
The list doesn't end here. There are many more places along the Silk Road that shouldn't be left to be visited. So take a vacation, hit the Silk Road and familiarize yourself with a beautiful culture and a multitude of soul-penetrating experiences.

 

Inferring Information in China’s Stock Markets

  

Shanghai Stock Exchange

Anyone who follows the financial markets must already be familiar with the story. Chinese stock markets had previously experienced a boom and the Shanghai Composite was standing at 5,178, when the market reached its peak on June 12. Overall in 2018, Chinese stock market had a loss in 2018 reducing bubble worries. Looking back before this drop the Shanghai index seemed to be continuously rising by more than 135% per year. From a fundamental point of view, the boom was almost incomprehensible. The markets were soaring even when the growth expectation from Chinese economy were vague, corporate profitability was squeezed, while the banks, which dominate the index, experienced a sharp rise in Nonperforming Loans (NPLs). Also during the same time period it was quite clear that the declining GDP growth of China was excessively reliant on the increasingly rapid credit growth. It was also evident that to have a control on credit growth, the GDP growth still had to drop.

The markets reached their peak in mid-June but the panic among the investors began somewhere in the first week of July. Actually July 7 is being referred by many as “Black Tuesday” of the Chinese market. By that time the Chinese market almost lost one third of its value. Beijing started to implement a series of measure since late June, in order to stop the decline. Ultimately it did not have its desired effects. By the first weekend of July, a complete sense of desperation was being experienced as the regulators did their best by taking exceptional measures in attempt to control the imminent fall.
The panic in the stock market seemed to end on July 9, when Shanghai markets closed up 5.8% on a single day. It was followed by considerable gains on the following Friday and Monday. Although the decline of 3.0 % on Tuesday had the hearts of the investors throbbing again and the nervousness also did not subside over the period of next three days as the markets rose with quite some drama. For now it can be safely said that the panic has finally ended, but with none of the fundamental questions resolved, volatility is still expected. It can also be observed that the markets still remain overvalued. However, there is little doubt in it that at least one more quite nasty bearish trend will take place.
The panic and policy responses have ignited a ferocious debate on the economic reforms of China and Beijing's capabilities regarding the cost of bearing the economic adjustment. Volatility is among this cost. Rebalancing of the economy and withdrawing of the state control over various aspect of the economy, especially the financial system will surely reduce the ability of Beijing to smoothly manage the economy over the short term, although it may be necessary for preventing a dangerous surge in the volatility over long term.
Although volatility is not the only thing to be considered but volatility can never be taken out of the equation. In one variable the volatility can be suppressed just by increasing the volatility in some other variable or by temporary suppression in exchange for more disruptive adjustment at some specific point in future.
When monetary volatility is being considered, for example, whether it is money supply and interest rate volatility or exchange rate volatility, the central banks can make the choice of controlling the later in exchange for greater volatility in the former and vice versa.
In other words, it can be said that the regulators never choose how much volatility will be permitted. Although they can choose any form of volatility which is least preferred by them and then try controlling it. It is always a political choice rather than an economic one. In short it is about deciding that which economic group will have to bear the cost of the volatility.
One way or another, it can be safely said that there is a huge amount of volatility in the Chinese economy. It is not only because of the fact that it is lower in the list of developing countries, which are always more volatile economically as compared to the advanced countries but also because of the fact that it is depending highly on investment for generating growth. It is argued by Hyman Minsky that the economies that are actually driven by the investment are highly volatile and quite susceptible to the changes in the sentiment. He is quite right.

 

Follow The 3 Wheels to Standardize the Economy

  

G20 Argentina

The 2018 G20 Buenos Aires summit, was the 13th meeting of G20, held on 30 November and 1 December 2018. Looking back in time; In the year 1999, an International forum was started to promote discussions on policy issues to build up the financial stability globally. This forum includes institutions such as “World Bank”, IMF (International Monetary Fund) and “World Trade Organization”. The forum includes 20 major economies, so it is called G-20 or “ A Group of Twenty”. The G-20 hosts meetings separately with its members. In March, 7th, in Beijing at National People's Congress press meeting, the finance minister of China expressed his view while hosts in a two-day, G-20 meeting.The meeting shaped their comments mainly on government support and on tax reforms. The finance minister also expressed that the government can face the problems, but cannot escape from them. At the end of the G-20 meeting all the leaders, along with the finance minister and Governor of People's Bank agreed to use all the combined available policy tools collectively to strengthen and stabilize the market situations. The finance minister in the G-20 negotiations on monetary policies, he opined generally that the largest economies take an optimistic part in the serious matters and risks. At last the finance minister said that the agreement is up to the expectations of the country.

The media company interviewed the Finance Minister, and inquired about the G-20 meeting about the global economy. The Finance Minister gave a statement , that the fluctuations which are occurring in the bullion market, are because of the pessimistic outlook of the global investors, the leaders vowed that, these factors do not reflect on the global economy and by collective usage of combined policy tools, the government can face the situations, but cannot escape from the situations. Regarding the disagreement on monetary policies, the Finance Minister explained that the negative interest rates may decrease the bank balance sheets which may further lead the economy to risks. Along with the monetary policy , fiscal policies and structural reforms, should be promoted to stabilize the price in the markets. The media asked the finance minister about the how different economic conditions meet the finalized consensus. The Finance Minister replied all the leaders of G-20 agreed to use the policy tools commonly according to their necessity and situation. As the expectations met by the policy tools there will be no scope for the capital flows. The media asked about the structural reforms and the Finance minister replied that the country has lots of opportunities and launched many short and long term measures. He expressed that smaller and mid sized companies have followed the administrative procedures and those were very simplified and innovate. They followed a pricing system and urbanization reforms. The most reason behind this is decentralization. This is the distortion problem. Decentralization may lead to lack of stabilization of the economy.
Targets of G-20:
To run the economy smoothly, every country has to keep in balance all the three wheels that are stability, progress and development. The International Monetary Fund reform has to regulate and strengthen the international coordination to control and stabilize the effects of monetary policies. The progress agenda has to look towards the global supply and demand. All the countries have the policy tools to regulate the institutional policies to increase the trade.The development agenda is the most important where the growth is to be more balanced in the long run. The environmental and many factors involved in the global development agenda. As the world economy started the recovery program, the G-20 started managing its growth and development crisis.
There are high expectations that the 2016, G-20, gives China an ownership to lead the global economic governance, China is preparing to contribute its share for the world's benefit. The main function of the G-20 is to manage the major economic policies and to support the smaller countries. The activities of G-20 are not concerned only within the country, as they are of multi- platform, where the whole china can participate and express their views and support the economic governance. In 2013, the State Counselor said that China is the Participator, supporter and contributor for G-20 consensus.

 

Financial Scams

  

Financial hope for better 2019 

There was a high number of scams in 2015 - 2018, lets hope 2019 is better. As the watchdogs started to fight to conform with the number of fluctuations that has conformed to the financial business, this was revealed during a meeting to deal with the problem. The number of cases that the government has declared as illegal fundraising went up by over 70% in the past year, it was Yang Yuzhu who leads the inter-agency body assigned to deal with the issue, during a meeting on the 27th of April that has attended by around fourteen ministries as well as commissions.

Those who have attended the meeting that has been open to the media personnel never said anything pertaining to the number of fraud cases concerning the authorities in the past year. The government is actually unclear about what is enclosed in the illegal fundraising, however, there were more reported scams as well as Ponzi schemes. This, however, see the money from new investors who used to pay for the previous ones, they have shown in the news in the past years as well. The amount of the money that was involved in the scam in the past two years went up by over ½ in 2015 as well as the number of cases that involves more than a hundred million Yuan rose by 44% year after year, according to Yang.
With the rising coverage of the issues, the courts on the other hand do not have much judges with the financial information according to Yongyi, who also happened to be a judge of the Supreme People's Court. There were new kinds of scams that have been modelled for regulators encouraging Zhang Xiaojin who is an officer at the Supreme People's Procuratorate. According to the office of the top prosecutors, unlawful fundraising is normally done under the roof of the monetary modernization. The prosecutors must go through more training, this way, they can determine the difference between the scams as well as the financial technology, this is in accordance with the statement of Zhang.
The internet has made it harder for the regulators to restrict the coverage of the fraud, this is according to Yang. During the latter part of this year, the government has closed the Ezubo, which is a kind of P2P lending site that the investigators said has cheated more than 900,000 small investors from the more than fifty billion Yuan using the Ponzi scheme. According to the officials during a meeting once said that they will just use the newest technologies. This is to keep up with the stronger methodology of monitoring in terms of the financial sector, thus to persuade the government bodies to share some of the information that they have. They also said and promised to start the campaign in May. This aims to give some information about the risks and the effects of the scammers to the government.
The central government gives more time on the scam after untying the string of the financial corruptions. The Beijing government and so do with Shanghai as well as Shenzhen has paused the opening of the companies with the names suggests that they give some financial services, the people linked in this matter tells all about it, but it will just be for a period of time until the problems are settled. The documents sent to different firms last April said that the rules will be stricter for the internet finance products. The contents that assures high returns, endorsement of various celebrities as well as wrongful information will be banned in the net finance companies' advertisements.

 

Survive the Chinese Business Scene

  

Survive the Chinese Business Scene

We bring you Eight Golden Rules to Survive the Chinese Business Scene. The best way to learn about China is to be physically present and experience first-hand outside of luxury cars. Store visits and learning on the ground by checking up on the private residences are the best activities to learn about China. Travelling to third tier cities can give you a better overview picture of China.

Secondly, one must be sensitive to industrial changes. Common factor for business losses is that overseas firms are too obsessed with market share growth and abandon other competitive traits. For example, there were 20 or more foreign brewers in mid 90s for the beer sector. Each planned to capture 15% of the market. However, lack of differentiation made them compete head to head with 600 plus local brewers, heavily reliant on government subsidies. Twenty years on, same issue is still present. Other industries have similar traits to the beer sector, all facing overcapacity, highly fragmented, heavily subsidized by local government and foreigner willingly absorbing strategic investment losses.
The third key rule is to take it slow. Many liked to rush things. A CEO once wanted its operations to commence within 6 months. Being too fast can cause headaches later on due to lack of planning. Attention should be focused on looking for the suitable local partner. One must be patient or risk losing out on the negotiation tables with the Chinese partner.
The fourth rule is to understand that Chinese society work in groups. The trait is reinforced by Geert Hofstede's groundbreaking research on Chinese culture. Chinese may appear individualistic to outsiders and directly conflicts with the research. This is because Chinese appear collectivist among close family members, friends and clan. They co-operate within the circle and all other outsiders must compete fairly. It is extremely difficult to attain self-organized cooperation, as highlighted by Sun Yat Sen's observation for China. Chinese counterpart will also reluctant to agree to a win-win outcome. Negotiations may be re-open anytime even an agreement seems settled. They may argue that they have not bargained well and hard enough.
In China, mistrust as well as opportunism are widespread. One must understand this fifth rule well. Either you trust wholeheartedly at first meeting or trust only after gathering enough evidence. Chinese will only trust after cross examining a potential partner. China will use its position to gain upper advantage of groups outside their clan. There is no legal mechanism for such checks and balance. Chinese are usually skeptical of outside clan members. There may be issue on enforcing contractual agreements and signed letters, and one must always have countermeasures such as withholding cash until goods are delivered and examined for completeness.
The sixth rule is that trust takes a long time to foster due to interpersonal nature of trust. It is a great defense to foster close relationships in personal of business dealings. Building personal contacts is a must for business, and takes time and patience. One must attend sporting or dinner events. Drinking alcohol is part of the role. Smart experienced negotiators often dispose the alcohol from their glass to water glasses and wet towels available in restaurants.
The seventh rule is be ready to encounter any unusual behavior that may be common in China but not in western countries. Chinese often go beyond conventional negotiation tactics. For instance, they may threaten to use political links to block the distribution rights for the western companies' products. Another case involved Chinese party getting western guests drink excessively to prevent effective negotiations. Always be on alert as well as standby defense measures. Learn to drink well or delegate drinking to team members.
The final rule is that Chinese society is very hierarchical. Decision flows from top to down approach. There is little delegation and supervisory control is high. Middle level managers have little power in decision making and their role usually functions as passing orders and execution of orders.

Currency Value

  

Currency Value

The RMB was found by the PBoC to be overvalued in contrary to the beliefs that this currency was undervalued. The discussion of this particular currency came to the forefront following the currency regime deregulation by the PBoC. If this organization should stop their interference, the ratio of dollar demand to supply would cause a dramatic decline in the worth of the RMB currency. This information is supported by the market operations and the actions of the investors. You may need to know that the valuation of most assets is not always indicated by the ‘market forces'.

The market forces is the balance and or ratio of supply and demand. This is not the only definition of the term as it is described in many fashion but it is generally the economic fundamentals valuation of assets. The market fundamentals that drive the demand and supply can be considered as an overvalued currency. Technical factors also drive the supply and demand of assets. They rely on the changes in terms of supply to demand that results from the activities other than what the fundamental factors create. This can be explained using China's approval of the QFII program. This program allowed investors not native to the Asian country to buy Chinese stocks. The inclusion of these Chinese stocks on the MSCI global benchmark would have or should have increased the demand immediately for Chinese stocks. This would result in the increase of prices that was unrelated to and improvement in the economy's outlook.
It is taught that if there was an increase in price, it would be by an imperceptible amount. This is due to the trading levels being consistence with the supply and demand fundamental balance. The aim is for Chinese investors to off load their stocks at the point prices are increased thanks to the foreign purchases, unfortunately this was not the case. The prices fluctuated as expected from buying and in instances where the purchases materialized. In this instance, the fundamental valuation that usually anchors of the prices was absent.
The consensus of many traders is that the fundamental valuation has no real significance to the drive of the market. This is the opposite of what is taught in schools and one might have to unlearn this notion. Instead of total rejection, it might be more beneficial to you analyze the market and identify the times and conditions the prices react to the fundamentals.
Without the intervention of the PBoC the RMB currency is sure to lose value but it is not an indication that the currency is overvalued either. The truth of the matter simply is, if you were to try and obtain information from the fundamentals it is almost assured that you will get the complete opposite of what you seek thanks to the market itself being largely driven by technical. This causes the RMB to remain undervalued but not by a whole lot.
Is it possible for the market to settle on a suitable value for RMB?
Is it possible for the market to settle on a suitable value for RMB?aDo you support free trade? Do you support supply side economics? Do you support fiscal deficit limits and debt? These are all questions that seem to be of some principles but they are not. The same can be said for the value of the RMB being determined by the market. The principles sometimes work in certain situations and fail to in others. It may be best for you to just determine the conditions that they may work. The question arises about the conditions that would make China decide on the markets setting the value of the RMB currency.
In a situation such as this, you would have to ask yourself a couple questions. Do you have any political objectives such as the redistribution of capital or plan to aid in the protection, until it reaches a level of competitiveness, of selected industries? To answer this question you may need to look at the exchange rate as a whole then decide in which direction you will move it in relation economy's fundamentals. Some of the distortions in the Chinese economy will need to be eradicated as they are responsible for weakening the mispriced economical inputs and capital. In their case it has left them with a dependence on excess capacity, debt and a state in division. Innovative incentives and created values may be shadowed by the politics.

 

Fossil Fuel VS Renewable Energy Resources

  

Fossil Fuel VS Renewable Energy Resources

China, The world's largest producer of Photovoltaic power (it is a method to convert solar energy into current) and also the largest producer and consumer of coal . China leads the world in its production of renewable energy, to that of combined production of Germany and France power plants. China is in leading production of renewable energy than fossil fuels and nuclear power. In September 2013, as an action plan, to control the air pollution, China's government desired to utilize more renewable energy as it has abundant water, wind and solar power than oil, coal and gas. In the year 2013, the coal production and consumption increased rapidly and later on, it dropped continuously by 3.7% in 2015. However the central government restricted and issued directions for construction of new coal plants in the country, and the National Energy Agency banned new constructions of coal mines for three months and sealed some thousands of small coal mines. In the year 2016, even though wind power generation capacity increased , nearly 26% of the total turbines were not utilized up to their maximum extent. Despite this, new turbines, which can generate 33 million kilowatts of electricity are installed, and now the country reached in generating the electricity to 129 million kilowatts per year. In previous years the over supply of wind turbines and the lack of smart grid to control the fluctuations resulted in the wastage of the wind, hydro and solar energy. To meet the demand and to stabilize the supply, the local government, along with some grid companies assigned power quotas to control the weakening demand. Coal plants are the easiest and fastest way towards the economic growth and in creating jobs.
Diversified Preferences
Some of the experts expressed that, the adopted policies of the local government are not appropriate and they are interrupting the development of the renewable energy sources. And others expressed that government supports fossil fuels rather than renewable resources which are cheap and supports the local people by creating the jobs. In the month of December in some parts of the country the respective authorities squeezed the production and levied more fee on wind, solar and hydro power producers and in some places the authorities reduced the price paid by the state from 40 to 75 %, to facilitate the local grid. This was strongly opposed by the renewable energy producers, this resulted a major loss for the wind energy producers. Due to the consequences, the wind power generating companies lost more than 18 billion yuan in production slots, and the world's largest wind energy firms also suffered a loss of 500 million yuan in 2015 as some of their turbines were forced to stop the production. Despite the demand drops, the local authorities support the coal fired power plants, without central government approval, approved 155 new coal power plants which is three times more that that of the approval rate of the previous year.
Increased Pressure
In the year 2014, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in China, had set up some long term future plans and targeted to increase the production of non-fossil fuel sources to more than 90% by 2050. Coal is the cheapest source of power generator, which costs 0.3yuan for one kWh, whereas 0.6yuan for solar power. To meet the goal now the government has to impose a pollution tax or a carbon tax on producers of fossil fuels, ultimately then there will be a rise in the cost of production of electricity. If this tax is levied, then by 2020, the coal power generation cost increases to 0.85 yuan per kWh to that of 0.51 yuan and 0.62 yuan per kWh for wind and solar energy.
One of the Main Functions of the NDRC is to formulate and implement strategies of national economic and social development, annual plans, medium and long-term development plans; to coordinate economic and social development; to carry out research and analysis on domestic and international economic situation; to put forward targets and policies concerning the development of the national economy, the regulation of the overall price level and the optimization of major economic structures, and to make recommendations on the employment of various economic instruments and policies; to submit the plan for national economic and social development to the National People's Congress on behalf of the State Council.
The central government has to observe the consequences that are occurring by the local authorities and has to take certain measures to control and implement the national level policies which supports the economy's growth and works wonders.

 

Chinese Banking

  

AIIB 2018

The Chinese policymakers had many doubts a couple years ago that almost cause one of Beijing's policy success to be halted on a global scale. These were the plans that were made for the development of China's new bank. Beijing faced many doubts facing investing in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. These doubts arise from the notion that the country would not be able to convince other nations to support them. China was however able to overcome this obstacle thanks to a few Middle East governments who made significant cash investments. The course of direction was aided by the help of some very important European nations supporting them as well, regardless of the opposition shown by the U.S.

The prior Chinese vice premier and AIIB president along with other stalwart supporters and a former chief of the China Investment Corp.in combination with overseas assertion was able to make the idea of the Asian bank to become a reality. Despite the financial difficulties that China is currently facing, the success of the establishment of the bank only serves to give Beijing a confidence boost needed to effectively play its role among the national financial institutions. The country was lacking this confidence in the initial stages of this venture due to the belief that there would be no financial backing.
The call on the Southeast Asian nations was discouraging as the governments of the majority of these nations were just not capable of financially backing the venture. They were in full support but did not have the finances to invest in the bank. It was subsequently the Middle East nations that made investments in the bank as they needed infrastructure and had the capability to pay for it. The Middle East nations deal in Oil and they possess foreign money. The implementation of this bank will amplify the influence that the Chinese government has on the financial development on a global stage.
There have already been fifty seven countries that have jumped on the wagon with a fraction of a bout a seventh of these countries being Middle East nations. They include Iran, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Emirates. The Chinese government has come under a lot of scrutiny with the question being asked if whether or not China is capable of properly and effectively operate a multilateral financial institute of this magnitude given the fact that the country has no prior experience in this field. It is the belief of many government skeptics that the AIIB will face losses.
Being a current member of the BRICS development bank was a factor that many used to challenge the credibility of China as the operator of this bank. The Chinese nation was to collaborate with the Russians on establishing another such lender. The implications that the Chinese government is unscrupulous would be brought to the forefront if an investment fund of this nature was established at the time suggested. The Russian government was fully with the idea of creating a bank with the Chinese. This was the argument brought by the AIIB proponents along with the fact that other BRICS bank members were competing to be the lead lender.
The AIIB will not only give China a stage to flaunt it financial influence but it allow the nation to receive positive feedbacks on the job being done. The Chinese government of the past was never for the idea of an institution of this magnitude despite the AIIB president's many pitches for one such institute to be erected in Beijing. The change in government since 2013 as seen China fully supporting the direction and ventures, the “one belt, one road” internal design and strategies for exportation. The Chinese leaders were persuaded to back the proposal of the bank's establishment by the potential forward movement of the ‘one belt, one road' plan by the AIIB. Zeng Peiyan, former vice premier who also leads the CCIEE was responsible of the proposal of the creation of the bank. The CCIEE supporting the proposal and the president of AIIB has had many consultations about the creation of the institute. It is the belief of many that the success of the AIIB is overwhelming and no one could have foreseen such great fortune and the response from so much people. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a multilateral development bank investing in infrastructure in Asia

 

Ticking debt and bond time-bombs

  

China Railway

China Railway Material Company (CRM), the biggest supplier for railroad construction materials has suspended all trading on its bonds worth 16.8 billion yuan. This is the first trading halt for a bond security and investor has been fearful since. CRM bonds are traded on platform offered by NAFMII. The company divulged that it is facing cash flow problem to repay the debt and is drafting a plan for protecting bond holders. Resumption of trading for the bonds is uncertain and not specified. CRM is the first corporation under the central government's supervision to freeze bond trades in order to address its debt issues. It is one of the handful of Chinese corporations facing default issues for their bonds as China faces economy slowdown. Shanghai Yunfeng, a subsidiary under Greenland Holdings, China's 3rd largest real estate developer, defaulted on 2 debt notes worth 2 billion. The company refused to work with investigation launched by NAFMII. Sinosteel Corporation, also a government owned steel company had defaulted on its debt notes repayment worth 2 billion. Baoding Tianwei, another government linked entity had reneged on its local bonds worth 4.5 billion in yuan. Analysts are concerned that the debt issue will hit the bond market for nonfinancial companies for future years.

CRM's decision shocked bond investors and may be a signal of more debt woes. New bond issuance will be affected negatively in terms of pricing and cost. Increasing financial costs will restrict companies from raising funds in the bond markets. Banks, insurance entities and fund managers have pulled back bond investments, according to CIC. 49 planned bond issuances were cancelled for March and April due to market fears. Private and State enterprises have long had debt troubles. However government has been trying hard to contain the problem. Bond investors have been enjoying government support to guarantee the face value of bonds repayment. Government has been stepping in with cash funding support to prevent default. The new policies launched to control economic slowdown are coming to an end. Government is retracting its support for inefficient companies and cut excess capacity. Investors are used to trusting government bailouts and rarely find any debt problems, until recently. They accepted the minimal financial transparency by companies issuing the bonds. Timely information were not available from companies and investors have difficulties finding a valid contact for information.
In the years before investor are more concerned on the issuer's connection with the government compared to disclosure of financials. It is not feasible anymore. Beijing policymakers have begun drafting rules in order to strengthen disclosure of financial info and credit rating for bonds. China Regulatory Commission for Securities and China Central Bank are heading the initiative. The guidelines could change the investing landscape by addressing the communication channel problem. Investors have been more careful since government issued orders to diminish overcapacity. Tianwei bond default made investor very nervous. Transparency issue forced NAFMII to investigate in detail the parent company for Yunfeng. Yunfeng has massive fund raising since 2012 to 2014, raising a total of 8.2 billion from private bond markets. Yunfeng transferred a few property to parent company Greenland and many feared bond default would happen when Greenland stops backing Yunfeng's debt. Bondholder tried requesting for financial reports from the underwriter but was not successful. Bondholders are prepared to sue Yunfeng and Greenland for lack of financial disclosures.
Investors questioned the bond underwriter status for Huayu Energy which missed repayment deadline for its bonds. Regulators are investigating any improper transfers from bond issuer's bank account to parent companies or subsidiaries. Tianwei is on the brink of default but share price were rising for the listed arm. The company arranged a few asset swaps since 2011 by transferring most valuable assets to Baobian Electric, a listed entity in Shanghai Stock Exchange. Baobian is profitable since 2014 and share price is steadily rising. However, Tianwei is suffering financially and had since defaulted on four term notes batches. Bond investors in the defaulting companies are trapped in a deteriorating credit environment. There is a real danger of high leverage for capital taken from retail investors. Wealth manager invested the proceeds in these bond markets.
China Railway Materials Company Limited (CRM) was reconstructed from China Railway Materials Commercial Corporate(CRMCC), the former Materials Administration Bureau of Ministry of Railways(MOR), with the approval of the State-owned Assets Supervision & Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC).

CRM is an ultra-large supply chain services provider focusing on serving customers in the markets of railway materials, steel products and minerals in China. Headquartered in Beijing, CRM has established over 1,000 subsidiaries, branches and operation offices, including seven operating overseas subsidiaries in Hong Kong, the United States, Australia and Sierra Leone.

CRM provide railway materials supply chain services including procurement, supply, quality control, inventory management, logistics, processing and information management in respect of railway materials such as railway diesel products, steel rails, key components of rail vehicles and steel and cement for railway construction, to serve the key sectors of the railway industry in China, namely, railway operations, rail vehicle production and railway construction.
 
A systemic risk is surfacing due to widening spread between asset yields and debt costs. Credit rating institutions have so far declared the market for bonds as being safe, but still can succumb to random risks. Analysts fear there are more problems to come. Many bonds could be on the verge of downgrade and when that happens, there could be a huge wave of sell-offs.

 

  
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